ECFR Scenario Game: Which MENA region in 2030?

Rome, 11 June 2026
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International cooperation of Italy

In 2026, more than ever before, discussing forecasting in international politics is no longer a gamble. Scenarios previously considered unlikely now seem to be taking concrete shape, leading to destabilization and changes in the international order – as well as increasing fragmentation within it. The MENA region, long a hotbed of conflict and instability, remains at the center of international dynamics that are giving rise to scenarios once considered utopian. Looking at Italy and its interests in the region, the chaos in Libya and Israel's actions, aimed at establishing a new hegemony in the Middle East, remain of primary concern. In this context, strategic reflection can no longer be limited to ex post analysis or short-term observation of events. Considering how these two areas of interest may evolve by 2030 is therefore essential to avoid being caught unprepared and instead develop concrete, well-structured, and realistic policy responses.

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